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INVESTI

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INVESTI

PostPostao/la Lukeni » 11 ruj 2017, 13:20

:arrow:

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la snowflakes » 11 ruj 2017, 13:40

Potencijalne nove tropske oluje i uragani ako bude povoljnih uvjeta :)

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 11 ruj 2017, 15:32

Sanse padaju za formiranje Leeja, bile su na 50 posto sinoc.
Citat:
1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward for the next two days and then turn northward
over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


S druge strane SAD-a... Cak se i Katia mozda reorganizira
Citat:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. The remnants of Katia located about 350 miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with a low pressure center with
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds should
limit development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15
mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


2. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula by the middle
of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development after that time while it moves northward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.



slika

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la snowflakes » 12 ruj 2017, 18:22

Ova tropska depresija na istočnom Pacifiku će samo nakratko postati tropska oluja, a onda ponovo se vratiti na depresiju.
Razlog tomu je kretanje prema zapadu gdje nije ocean toliko topao.

JUGO
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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 14 ruj 2017, 05:12

Dva nova podrucja moguceg razvoja u MDR-u u Atlantiku veceras

Ovaj zapadniji sistem razvijaju i GFS i EC, to mi ulijeva povjerenje jer znamo kako su GFS i EC ocitali lekciju NHC-u za vrijeme Harveya. Mislim na onaj dio kad su tocno predvidjeli da ce se raspat u zapadnim Karibima

JUGO
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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 14 ruj 2017, 17:56

Proslih par godina je pri vrhuncu sezone bilo obilje suhog zraka u MDR-u, zato smo tih godina dobili najjace uragane u listopadu. U rujnu su uvjeti bili relativno nepovoljni.
Ove godine taj suhi zrak je misteriozno nestao, tj. vlaga je porasla do prosjecnih razina za ovaj dio godine dolje. Nema naznaka da bi u skorijem vremenu trebalo doci do pogorsavanja uvjeta, prema tome mogli bi vidjet period aktivnosti barem do prve dekade listopada.

Jutros...
Citat:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Blake

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Ned » 14 ruj 2017, 20:07

Lee i Maria...uskoro na Atlantiku?

ovaj sustav koji je bliže Africi je izgleda jači...slijedi li još barem jedan dugi long track uragan?

slika

Citat:
1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave, located south of the Cabo Verde Islands, is
producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm activity. This
system has become much better organized since yesterday and could
become a tropical depression during the next couple of days before
upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The
disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

JUGO
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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 15 ruj 2017, 03:15

97L ima zatvorenu cirkulaciju na razini mora (sudeci po GFS-u sa earth.nullschool.net ).
Steta sto ga je popodnevni ASCAT promasio, ali ocekujem da do jutra bude tropska depresija

JUGO
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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 16 ruj 2017, 16:25

Izgleda da ce 96L postati Lee, a ne 97L

Citat:
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles.

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Ned » 16 ruj 2017, 16:55

ipak neće :-)

96L će biti Maria,
zasad je PTC 15

Citat:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 50.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


i pogodit če opet dio Kariba koje je razorila Irma

Citat:
The disturbance is expected to intensify and will likely bring
tropical storm and hurricane conditions as well as flooding
rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles early next week.
These
conditions could also spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
by mid week. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress
of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 12.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 12.8N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 17/1200Z 13.6N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.3N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 15.0N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 16.3N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.6N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 18.7N 67.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Ned » 16 ruj 2017, 16:58

neće valjda Irma2 :jez:

slika
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Ned » 22 ruj 2017, 21:42

moguće malo akcije na središnjem Atlantiku

slika

Citat:
A small area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Lee,
is located over the central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles
east-southeast of Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms, although the circulation appears
somewhat elongated. Some additional development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves slowly northward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.


ako se razvije trabao bi to opet biti Lee po NHC-u

Citat:
If this system develops and is deemed by NHC to have roots in the remnants of Lee, it will take the name Lee; otherwise, it will be named Nate.
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

JUGO
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Pridružen/a: 25 ožu 2009, 09:58
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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 24 ruj 2017, 20:21

Nije jos ni blizu invest, ali sljedeci tjedan bi se nesto moglo razviti u zapadnom karipskom moru. Vec par dana i GFS i EC ukazuju na razvoj polja niskog tlaka, s obzirom na vrlo dobre uvjete sanse su solidne da vidimo prvi "kasno sezonski" uragan u Karibima.

La nina koja se razvija bi teoretski trebala znaciti aktivan kraj sezone.

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Ned » 24 ruj 2017, 20:34

moguć je da jedan klasični listopadski uragan

to njuši i "veliki" Joe Bastardi

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi

Citat:
Textbook pattern setting up for late season western Caribbean development Oct 1-10. Would be very surprised if it did not


a Karipsko more praktički netaknuto ove godine


samo je Harvey prošao onuda (ali dok je bio raspadnut)
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: INVESTI

PostPostao/la Jugo i Bura » 24 ruj 2017, 21:13

Ima več nekoliko dana modeli vide ta polja niskog tlaka , šansa za razvoj nije mala i mislim da neće razveselit okolnu populaciju s obzirom na sve što smo gledali ove godine do sad

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