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Uragan Ophelia (8.-16.10.2017. )

JUGO
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Uragan Ophelia (8.-16.10.2017. )

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 09 lis 2017, 17:13

TD 17 je proglasena tropskom olujom ima 15ak minuta. Nalazi se daleko od kopna te ne bi trebala biti prijetnja ikome.

Uvjeti bi trebali biti nesto povoljniji za razvoj tako da NHC prognozira da bi Ophelia mogla postati cak 10. uragan ove sezone.

Citat:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 39.9W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


Citat:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 31.4N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 31.7N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 31.6N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 31.3N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 30.7N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 29.8N 36.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 30.5N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 32.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH


slika

EXPERT
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Ned » 09 lis 2017, 20:45

opa, evo i Ophelie

mogla bi krajem tjedna i slijedeći prema Azorima

slika
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

JUNIOR
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 09 lis 2017, 22:32

Samo ne kuzim sta je krenula prema Azorima, zar ne bi bilo logicnije prema zapadu (SAD-u)

JUGO
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 09 lis 2017, 23:06

Pogled na sinopticku situaciju daje odgovor; Ophelia je izmedju dva bloka. Jedan prema jugoistoku, drugi je onaj poznati Bermuda high. Nema bas gdje ici osim istocno. Takoder, nalazi se na 32N sto je prilicno sjeverno, pa je vise pod utjecajem zapadnjaka nego pasata.

Zanimljivo je da GFS zadrzava Opheliu sve do 360og sata i pritom je vrati nazad zapadno. EC ipak ima vjerojatno izvantropsku Opheliu koja udara u Irsku.

Novo azuriranje, Ophelia polako ali sigurno jaca. Unatoc ne tako toploj temperaturi oceana (26-27) ipak bi mogla ojacati bar do kategorije 1.

Citat:
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 39.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

UREDNIK
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la ZW » 10 lis 2017, 09:08

ECMWF 0z ima Opheliu jako blizu Portugala u 144. satu ;)
Moguć je i landfall dok još ima tropska obilježja :roll:

A GFS 0 z daje mogućnost za to u 186. satu ;)

JUGO
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 10 lis 2017, 17:32

Jutros su GFS i EC slozni da bi Ophelia mogla prizemljiti na sjeverozapadu Spanjolske te uci u Biskaj. Ophelia ima dobro razvijenu jezgru, mislim da bi danas trebala poceti znacajnije jacati.
Zanimljivo da EC ensembli ukazuju da bi Ophelia mogla jacati sve do moguceg prizemljenja. Tesko da nece barem zapoceti izvantropsku tranziciju prije Spanjolske/Portugala. U svakom slucaju neobicna situacija.

Prognoza
Citat:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 31.5N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 30.9N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 30.2N 37.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.8N 36.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 30.0N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 33.4N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 21.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

EXPERT
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Ned » 10 lis 2017, 23:28

ophelia polako grabi prema statusu uragana

Citat:
500 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 38.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Citat:
The overall convective structure of Ophelia has improved markedly
over the past several, including the development of numerous,
tightly curved bands and a burst of deep convection near the center.


slika

slika

a početkom slijedećeg tjedna modeli je vode prema Europi, ali večeras se ne čini izgledan landfall na Portugal ili sjever Španjolske, već bi Ophelia trebala završiti blizu Irske pa dalje na sjeverni Atlantik
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

JUGO
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Pridružen/a: 25 ožu 2009, 09:58
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 11 lis 2017, 18:00

Taman sam htio napisat da Ophelia izgleda kao solidan uragan, ali...
Citat:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE ON SATELLITE BUT IT IS NOT ONE
QUITE YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES



slika

EXPERT
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Ned » 11 lis 2017, 22:00

ha..ha..izgleda kao uragan ali još nije
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

EXPERT
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Re: Tropska oluja Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Ned » 11 lis 2017, 22:40

i evo..10-ti uragan u nizu na Atlantiku

to se dogodilo samo još u tri godine (od 1851. g) , zadnji put još 1893 godine

Citat:
Only three other years have seen ten consecutive Atlantic hurricanes: 1878, 1886, and 1893. (Note that within some of those late-1800s strings, there might have been small, short-lived tropical storms that today’s satellites would have caught.)


Citat:
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


Citat:
it
should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
higher than normal.


Citat:
Since it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity
forecast is low confidence


Citat:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 30.0N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.3N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 31.4N 34.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 32.3N 31.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 35.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z 53.5N 10.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


slika
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

JUGO
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Pridružen/a: 25 ožu 2009, 09:58
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Re: Uragan Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Thunderstorm » 12 lis 2017, 05:13

Veceras Ophelia 85 MPH/986 hPa, jos uvijek jaca. NHC standardno konzervativno

ADT procjena kaze 100MPH, ASCAT nije ni pronasao vjetar uraganske jacine. Gdje bi bili bez hurricane huntersa, zamislite da ovako moramo sa svakim uraganom...

U svakom slucaju, Irsku ocekuju uvjeti dostojni solidne tropske oluje. Ophelia bi se trebala produbiti sve do ispod 960 hPa. Doduse tad ce biti izvantropska.

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Re: Uragan Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Ned » 12 lis 2017, 17:51

Ophelia je uragan gotovo na granici CAt1 /CAT 2
NHC je drži na 150 km/h i tako još jedan dan

Citat:
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...OPHELIA MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 35.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


Citat:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 30.5N 35.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 31.6N 33.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 32.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 34.4N 27.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 40.9N 18.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 51.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1200Z 60.5N 5.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


ispred Irske stiže kao snažna post tropska ciklona

Citat:
Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom.
While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days.


slika

slika
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

BURA
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Re: Uragan Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la HrciBoy » 12 lis 2017, 21:47

Da je ne povlači za sobom ova velika Atlantska ciklona koja će se s njom dodatno ojačati, bilo bi interesantno gdje bi išla, možda bi upala i u Mediteran. :lol: :lol:

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Re: Uragan Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la Ned » 12 lis 2017, 22:46

Evo je i CAT 2, još će malo više nabildati ovogodišnji ACE

Citat:
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


Citat:
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Ophelia is expected to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.


Citat:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 30.4N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 31.0N 34.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 31.9N 32.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 35.0N 25.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 42.6N 17.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 53.0N 10.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1800Z 62.5N 2.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


slika
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

JUNIOR
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Pridružen/a: 13 srp 2016, 17:18
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Re: Uragan Ophelia (8.10.2017 - )

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 12 lis 2017, 22:50

HrciBoy je napisao/la:
Da je ne povlači za sobom ova velika Atlantska ciklona koja će se s njom dodatno ojačati, bilo bi interesantno gdje bi išla, možda bi upala i u Mediteran. :lol: :lol:

Kad bi usla u Mediteran, mozda bi cak jos malo ojacala pa udararila ravno na Italiju, do nas! :-) Da i to dozivim hahaha!

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