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Atlantik: Uragan Oscar (27.10.-31.10.)

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Atlantik: Uragan Oscar (27.10.-31.10.)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 27 lis 2018, 12:20

Formirana nova oluja imena Oscar na Atlantiku!


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate the circulation
of the broad low pressure area over the central Atlantic has become
better defined, with a low-level center developing to the south of
a convective burst. The scatterometer data indicate 35-40 kt winds
about 70-90 n mi from the center, and satellite imagery shows that
the cyclone is entangled with a developing upper-level low. Based
on these factors, advisories are being initiated on the latest in
this year's series of subtropical storms, Oscar.

Due to the recent development of the center, the initial motion is
an uncertain 335/8. The track guidance is in excellent agreement
that Oscar should should turn sharply westward and west-
southwestward during the next 24 h as it pivots around the north
side of the upper-level low, with this general motion continuing
through about 48 h. After that, the cyclone should turn more
westward at a slower forward speed as it approaches a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A northeastward motion appears likely from
72-120 h due to a mid-latitude trough approaching Oscar from the
west. However, there are significant differences in the forward
speed between the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that make this part
of the forecast low confidence. Overall, the forecast track is
close to the TVCN consensus model, and it splits the difference
between the divergent global models late in the forecast period.

Gradual strengthening is forecast as Oscar remains in the deep-layer
cyclonic flow of the upper-level low during the first 36-48 h.
After that time, the global models suggests the system will have a
chance to develop a tropical cyclone outflow pattern, and based on
this the forecast calls for Oscar to become a tropical cyclone near
the 48 h point. Interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough may allow some additional intensification before Oscar
encounters stronger shear near the 120 h point. The FV3 model shows
a much weaker Oscar than the other dynamical models, and it is
possible that dry air entrainment may hamper development through
the forecast period. Thus, the intensity forecast is below the
intensity consensus and on the weaker side of the intensity
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 26.7N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 26.6N 50.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.3N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 30/0000Z 26.5N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 34.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
Zadnja izmjena: FranGaca1 u/na 01 stu 2018, 14:35, ukupno mijenjano 2 put/a.

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Re: Atlantik: Subtropska oluja Oscar (27.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 27 lis 2018, 23:30

Oscar bi u jednom trenutku nakratko mogao postati i uragan!

000
WTNT41 KNHC 272032
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

Oscar is still located beneath an upper-level low, however it its
convective structure is now more reminiscent of a tropical cyclone.
Deep convection is primarily occuring in a small burst just south
of the center of Oscar, however this convective activity appears to
be displaced by light northerly shear associated with the upper-low.
Earlier AMSU sounding data indicated that the cyclone has developed
a weak but vertically deep warm core which also indicates that Oscar
is nearly a tropical cyclone, if it isn't one already. Oscar is
moving quickly westward away from the upper-low, and will likely
become a tropical storm later tonight if its current structural
trends continue.

The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, based primarily on the
latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB. The
intensity guidance has bounced back, and the most of the intensity
guidance is higher than it was six hours ago. While little change
was made to the NHC intensity forecast, it now lies very near the
intensity consensus at all forecast hours. Gradual intensification
is still expected and Oscar is forecast to approach hurricane
strength by Monday. Slight additional intensification is possible
through the middle of next week, until extratropical transition
occurs by 120 h.

Oscar moved very quickly westward this afternoon, but a more
representative motion estimate is 265/15 kt. The latest runs of the
typically reliable global models are in better agreement than they
were this morning. Oscar is forecast to move west-southwestward or
westward for the next day or two on the south side of a mid-level
ridge to the north. The cyclone is then expected to recurve and
accelerate northeastward ahead of a substantial mid-latitude trough
moving across the western and central Atlantic by the middle of next
week. The official track forecast has been adjusted westward to
bring it closer to the latest track consensus, especially for the
first 72 h of the forecast. By day 5, the official forecast is quite
similar to the previous advisory, but with a slightly slower forward
speed for Oscar.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 26.9N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 26.1N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 28/1800Z 25.7N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.6N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 26.4N 59.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
slika

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Re: Atlantik: Subtropska oluja Oscar (27.10.-)

PostPostao/la Ned » 28 lis 2018, 12:20

Oscar postao tropska oluja, uskoro i uragan

Citat:
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR STRENGTHENS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


Citat:
500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 52.6W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


slika
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Atlantik: Subtropska oluja Oscar (27.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 28 lis 2018, 19:12

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281450
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

Deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Oscar since early
this morning and its low-level center is no longer exposed.

Satellite intensity estimates have not changed since last night and
the estimated intensity of 60 kt is above the various techniques.
The initial intensity estimate is based primarily on the latest
available ASCAT data from last night around 0100 UTC that showed
maximum winds of 55-60 kt. Given the recent increase in convection
observed near the center of Oscar, it seems unlikely that the winds
have decreased since that time.
It is worth noting that the small
inner-core of Oscar increases the uncertainty of the intensity
estimate, and could make the cyclone susceptible to short term
intensity fluctuations that are nearly impossible to forecast or
precisely detect.

Virtually no change has been made to the intensity forecast. The
tropical storm is moving over sufficiently warm water to support
intensification and it is located within a light to moderate shear
environment. All the intensity models forecast at least some
strengthening, and Oscar is expected to become a hurricane later
today or tonight
, with some additional strengthening possible
through Wednesday. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin
soon thereafter, which will likely result in a decrease in the
maximum winds, even as the extent of tropical-storm-force winds
rapidly increases. This process is expected to be complete by 120 h.
The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the intensity
consensus IVCN at all forecast hours.

Oscar turned abruptly westward earlier this morning, and the initial
motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast
to continue moving generally westward for another 12 to 24 h on the
south side of a mid-layer ridge over the northern central Atlantic.
Oscar should then turn toward the north between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the
cyclone is expected to accelerate north-northeastward or
northeastward as it becomes embedded in deep-layer southwesterly
flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. All of the global models
agree on this general scenario, though there are differences
regarding the exact timing that Oscar will begin its recurvature
and how quickly it will accelerate across the northern Atlantic.
That said, the track consensus aids have changed very little, and no
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 25.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


slika

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Oscar (27.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 29 lis 2018, 08:34

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290245
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that the structure of Oscar has changed
little over the past several hours. Microwave imagery has shown a
ring or eye feature which is at least partly encircled by deep
convection, and an eye has made occasional appearances in infrared
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the
initial intensity remains 65 kt. One change from the previous
advisory is that recent scatterometer data show that Oscar has
smaller 34-kt wind radii than previously thought, so the initial
and forecast wind radii have been modified.

The initial motion remains 270/14. Oscar is approaching the
western end of a large low- to mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic, and thus it should turn northwestward with a decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 h or so. From 24-72 h, the
hurricane should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies on the
east side of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through the western
and central Atlantic. The models are in good agreement on the
forecast track through 72 h, then show significant differences based
on whether Oscar merges with a new cut-off low pressure area over
the central Atlantic or remains a separate system in the westerlies.
The latest GFS has joined the UKMET in showing Oscar racing
northeastward into the northeastern Atlantic by 120 h as a separate
system. In contrast, the HWRF and the FV3 models show a sharp turn
toward the south as the new low captures Oscar. The ECMWF is
between these extremes in showing a more gradual turn toward the
east well to the east of the HWRF/FV3 and well to the southwest of
the GFS/UKMET. The new forecast track is a little west of the
previous track in the early part of the forecast based on the
current position and motion. Later in the forecast period, it has
been shifted a little to the east in best agreement with the ECMWF.

Oscar is forecast to remain in a moist and unstable environment for
the next 36-48 h, and the trough approaching from the west is
likely to create a divergent outflow pattern.
Based on this, the
intensity forecast now shows a faster rate of strengthening than
the previous advisory. After reaching its peak intensity in 36-48
h, it appears likely that the extratropical transition will occur
near the 72 h point before the winds drop below hurricane force.
After transition, Oscar is expected to gradually decay. It should
be noted that if the FV3 scenario verifies, Oscar may maintain
tropical cyclone status beyond 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 25.6N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.9N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 29.1N 58.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 32.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

72H 01/0000Z 39.0N 48.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 45.0N 29.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Oscar (27.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 30 lis 2018, 12:47

Oscar je kategorija 2!! :!:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300834
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

Oscar's eye is less distinct on infrared satellite imagery than it
was several hours ago. Conventional and microwave imagery suggest
that the center is tilted a bit to the northeast with height, and
there continues to be some erosion of convection over the
southwestern quadrant of the hurricane. This is indicative of some
southwesterly shear over the system, and Oscar does not appear
likely to strengthen further. The current intensity is held at 90
kt based on a blend of Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB
and SAB. Model guidance indicates that the shear will not increase
further until tonight, so the intensity is held steady for the next
12 hours. After that time, south-southwesterly shear if forecast to
increase and become quite high in 36-48 hours. Around that time,
global models show Oscar interacting with a frontal zone, and
causing significant warm and cold air advection around the center,
indicating the transition to a vigorous extratropical cyclone.
Not surprisingly, the global guidance also shows a substantial
increase in the size of the system during and after the
extratropical transformation, and this is reflected in the NHC wind
radii forecasts.

Oscar is beginning to move faster, just to the east of due north, or
around 010/11 kt. There is little change to the track forecast
reasoning from the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days,
Oscar should continue to accelerate, toward the north-northeast,
in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-latitude trough that has
just moved off the United States east coast. Later in the period,
post-tropical Oscar should become more embedded within the trough
and in the mid-latitude westerlies, and move northeastward over the
northeastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to
the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions.

Large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 28.6N 58.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 34.0N 54.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 43.5N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0600Z 50.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z 57.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 63.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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