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Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

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Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 25 kol 2019, 16:54

Evo napokon kakvog-takvog uzbuđenja. Rodila se tropska oluja muškog imena Dorian. Razvila se nekoliko stotina milja istočnije/jugoistočnije od Antilskog otočja. Trenutni podaci su slijedeći; brzina vjetrova 40 mph, tlak 1008 mbar, brzina kretanja sustava 14 mph na zapad.
Očekuje se da će nakon napuštanja područja Antilskog otočja kratkotrajno ojačati na uragan 1 kategorije.

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la FRAKTUS » 26 kol 2019, 19:18

dobro to je nadam se samo rana prognoza... očekujen da naš ned to navuče na bar cat 4 u nastavku tjedna :)

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 27 kol 2019, 00:23

Pa zasad se poslije Antilla, a prije Dominikanske Republike očekuje kao uragan 1 kategorije.

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019)

PostPostao/la FRAKTUS » 28 kol 2019, 11:18

sad se već spominje i cat 2

**BREAKING** New updates in on #Dorian, Hurricane Watch now in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands PLUS latest track shows strengthening to Category 2 by the beginning of next week.

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 28 kol 2019, 14:41

Pa, tema zaslužuje nešto konkretnije. Zasada je Dorian još uvijek tropska oluja koja juri prema Portoriku brzinom oko 13 mph. Prate ju vjetrovi brzine oko 60 mph uz tlak od 1005 mbar. Nakon prolaska područja Portorika će uslijediti uragan kat.1 koji bi ubrzo, odnosno oko Bahama trebao ojačati i na kat. 2 dakle jedan sasvim solidan uragan.

slika

000
WTNT45 KNHC 280848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate
that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now
more established on the north side of the circulation. The
flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm,
and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50
kt. The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a
partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003
mb. A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT
passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms
that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm.

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the
Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains
higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la Ned » 28 kol 2019, 16:03

FRAKTUS je napisao/la:
dobro to je nadam se samo rana prognoza... očekujen da naš ned to navuče na bar cat 4 u nastavku tjedna :)


polako se navlači :-)

nova prognoza očekuje CAT 3 ispred obala Floride

Citat:
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


Citat:
All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States.


Citat:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 85 KT 100 MPH


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The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 28 kol 2019, 23:55

I evo ga, prema izvješću od 5PM Dorian je i službeno uragan 1 kat. sa vjetrovima 80mph i tlakom 997mbar

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la Ned » 29 kol 2019, 21:40

I evo ga, u prognozi je CAT 4, nekoliko dana unaprijed
bit će to i CAt 5 i veliki problem za Bahame i Floridu

Citat:
Key Messages:

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or
Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND


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The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 29 kol 2019, 22:55

FRAKTUS je napisao/la:
dobro to je nadam se samo rana prognoza... očekujen da naš ned to navuče na bar cat 4 u nastavku tjedna :)


Nostradamus Fraktus :llooll:

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 30 kol 2019, 11:29

Dorian će za par sati postati major hurricane, tj. postati će uragan kat. 3, no to nije sve. Ispred obala Floride će ojačati na solidnu kat. 4 uz vjetrove od 140 mph te će kao takav udariti na obalu "sunčane države". Guverner će izdati upozorenje za 26 okruga savezne države. Zasad kao najvjerojatnije područje slijetanja oka uragana se proteže između Palm Beacha i Cape Canarevala no moguća su još određena odstupanja od navedenog područja u slijedećih 24-36 sati. S obzirom da će prema prognozama uragan nad kopnom sporo slabiti vjerojatno će zadržati takve karakteristike duboko u srcu Floride, moguće čak do Orlanda (tamo je svjetski poznati Disney world) tako da će se uragansko područje opasnosti proširiti na 50% + od 67 okruga te savezne države! Može li po štetama Dorian prešišati Andrewa tek ćemo vidjeti ... čini se da su "muški" uragani zlosretni za tu saveznu državu.

Edit (14:30) ; Zadnji prelet lovca na uragane ukazuje da su vjetrovi dosegnuli 110 mph odnosno da Dorian polako postaje major hurricane.

slika
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la Ned » 30 kol 2019, 21:48

Dorian postao Major kat 3
Citat:
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 70.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


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The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la Zvone » 31 kol 2019, 09:07

I sad je već Cat 4 kao što je Fraktus i najavio :mrgreen:

Citat:
LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


slika

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 31 kol 2019, 09:31

Prema diskusiji prognoze NHC Miami još bi vjetrovi trebali ojačati do 150 mph no daljnje jačanje će biti onemogućeno jer se najavljuje zamjena očnog zida. Prolaskom područja sjeverozapadnih Bahama uslijedit će erozija zapadne komponente gibanja uragana te slijedi njegovo usporavanje uz nagli zaokret na sjeverozapad, a potom na sjever uz posljedično gubljenje snage tako da će tijekom idućeg tjedna izgubiti i karakteristike vrlo snažnog uragana.
Uragan bi tako izbjegao slijetanje na kopno Floride već slijedi njegovo gibanje duž istočne obale te savezne države prema pograničnom dijelu Floride i Georgie.

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la Ned » 31 kol 2019, 12:10

Dorian i dalje CAT 4, čini se da se prognozirana putanja polako odmiče od Floride

Citat:
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


Citat:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH


slika

slika

ipajk NHC u diskusiji navodi i

Citat:
The track
forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h.
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Atlantik: Uragan Dorian (23.8.2019-8.9.2019.)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 31 kol 2019, 13:02

Kako se okreće kolo (ne)sreće :roll: ! Sada se povećala vjerojatnost udara na Južnu Karolinu. Grdo je to kada je svojeglav pa mu se mora "loviti" moguća putanja po Atlantiku.

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