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TC Ockhi (30.11.2017. -

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TC Ockhi (30.11.2017. -

PostPostao/la HrciBoy » 02 pro 2017, 19:33

Evo malo da probudimo ovu temu. Ima sigurno već par dana da je aktivna Tropska ciklona u istočnom dijelu Indijskog Oceana, odnosno u Arapskom moru. Nastala je na samom vrhu indijskog poluotoka i krenula prema sjeveroistoku te se sada nalazi negdje sjevernije od Maldiva i prognoze za sada pokazuju da će mu putanja ići prema sjeverozapadnim obalama Indije. Trenutno je druge kategorije, a mogao bi pojačati i do treće, ali se očekuje njegovo slabljenje prije prizemljenja. Na kopno bi trebao ući kao tropski sustav.

Citat:
000
WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 10.6N 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.0N 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.2N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.8N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.3N 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.9N 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 70.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1069 NM NORTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND FILLING IN THE PREVIOUS EYE FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 021115Z 89GHZ AMSU
IMAGE SHOWING RING OF CONVECTION SOMEWHAT WEAKER ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.5 (77 TO
102 KNOTS) AND A 021113Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER
WITH IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY
FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03B IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 24 TO 36 AS IT ROUNDS THE
RIDGE AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND TC 03B WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 A WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN AS SSTS IN
THE REGION BEGIN TO DECREASE AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COOLER AND DRYER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
ALSO BEGIN FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AROUND THIS TIME AS 03B CONTINUES
TO TRACK POLEWARD AND WEAKENS FURTHER. TC 03B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA
JUST BEFORE TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD
GROUPING AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//



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Pridružen/a: 22 svi 2004, 22:02
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Re: TC Ockhi (30.11.2017. -

PostPostao/la Ned » 02 pro 2017, 20:05

Ockhi je, iako nije bilo ulaska na kopno već donio nevolje na jugu Indije

Citat:
Ockhi is being blamed for the deaths of at least 14 people as it lashed southern India with heavy rain and gusty winds late this week, according to Hindustan Times.
According to Reuters , India’s Coast Guard and Navy have rescued about 223 fishermen and evacuated thousands of people from cyclone-hit areas.
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

EXPERT
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Postovi: 30245
Pridružen/a: 22 svi 2004, 22:02
Lokacija: Labin, Istra

Re: TC Ockhi (30.11.2017. -

PostPostao/la Ned » 03 pro 2017, 13:23

Ockhi je kratko dosegnuo CAT 3

slika

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The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

Natrag na Sjeverni Indijski ocean

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Trenutno korisnika/ca: Nema prijavljenih korisnika/ca. i 1 gost.

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