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Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-24.10.)

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Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-24.10.)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 20 lis 2018, 18:22

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 201446
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

A GMI microwave pass over the depression at 0916 UTC revealed that a
tight inner core has developed, with a cyan and pink ring noted in
the low-level 37-GHz channel. Outer convective banding has also
been increasing, and a consensus of the latest subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates supports raising the maximum
winds to 35 kt and designating the cyclone as Tropical Storm Willa.
On an historical note, this is the first time that at least 21 named
storms have formed within the eastern Pacific basin since the 1992
season.


The microwave data suggest that Willa's center is a little farther
south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is
calculated to be westward, or 270/8 kt. The storm is already
located near the western periphery of a mid-level ridge which
extends across northern and central Mexico, and Willa is expected
to slowly recurve around the ridge axis during the next 4 days. By
the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough located over
the western U.S. is likely to cause Willa to accelerate toward the
northeast in the direction of mainland Mexico. All of the track
models agree on this general scenario, but there are some
differences on how wide a turn Willa makes while it recurves.
There are also some speed differences that appear to be related to
how strong Willa will be when the mid-latitude trough becomes the
main steering driver. The NHC forecast is very close to the
previous forecast during the first 48 hours. After that time, the
forecast has been nudged eastward since the GFS and ECMWF models are
both near or east of the multi-model consensus aids.

With a low-level ring already observed in microwave imagery, and
Willa located in an environment of low shear and over very warm
ocean water, the cyclone appears poised to go through a period of
rapid intensification (RI). Several of the various RI indices are
over 50 percent
, and thus the NHC forecast favors the high end of
the intensity guidance and explicitly shows rapid strengthening
over the next 48 hours. Willa is expected to be moving more slowly
by days 3 and 4 (about 3 kt)
, and upwelling of colder water could
induce some weakening by that time. An increase in shear is likely
to cause more significant weakening by the end of the forecast
period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the
previous forecast to account for the possibility of rapid
intensification, and it shifts Willa's expected peak intensity about
a day earlier.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 14.8N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.0N 106.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.3N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 15.8N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 100 KT 115 MPH Cat3 :!:
96H 24/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Zadnja izmjena: FranGaca1 u/na 24 lis 2018, 18:14, ukupno mijenjano 2 put/a.

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Tropska Oluja Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 21 lis 2018, 08:16

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 210232
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Willa has rapidly intensified since genesis occurred last night,
and it is almost a hurricane. Geostationary satellite and
microwave images indicate that banding features have become well
established in all quadrants and the inner core has continued to
organize. There is still no evidence of an eye feature,
however. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates
supports increasing the initial wind speed to 60 kt.

The latest satellite fixes indicate that Willa is now moving
northwestward at about 5 kt. The storm is expected to gradually
turn to the right as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge. In response, a northwestward motion should
continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the north
on Monday. After that time, a faster north-northeast to northeast
motion is expected when a shortwave trough approaches the system.
The latest model guidance, except for the UKMET, show Willa making
a sharper northward turn and at a faster pace. The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. This forecast is again faster than
the previous one and shows Willa making landfall over west-central
Mexico in 72 to 96 hours.

The storm has taken advantage of near ideal environmental conditions
of very low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and warm 29 deg C
SSTs. These conditions are expected to prevail for another couple
of days, and that should allow Willa to continue to strengthen
rapidly. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
show about 90 percent chance of RI continuing during the next 24
hours
. Based on this information and the latest model guidance, the
NHC intensity forecast shows Willa becoming a major hurricane in a
day or so. Some weakening is likely before Willa reaches the coast
due to an increase in shear and a decrease in available moisture,
but Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
coastline. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to
interaction with the rugged terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.7N 106.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.1N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.9N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.7N 107.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

72H 24/0000Z 20.7N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 21 lis 2018, 12:14

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 210844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify based on a well-defined CDO
with an intermittent pinhole eye evident in high-resolution GOES-16
infrared (IR) satellite imagery. Upper-level outflow has become well
established in all quadrants. The intensity is difficult to
ascertain since satellite intensity estimates vary widely based on
the scene type used and also the small size of the hurricane. TAFB
and SAB both provided an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, whereas UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON were 67 kt and 56 kt, respectively. In contrast, NHC
objective T-numbers are T5.0/90 kt using an embedded center and as
high as T6.0/115 kt using a pinhole eye. Given that the eye has not
been maintained in IR imagery, the advisory intensity of 75 kt lies
between the subjective TAFB/SAB estimate and lower NHC objective
estimate.

Willa is moving at 315/06 kt. There is no significant change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Willa is forecast to continue
moving northwestward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn
toward the north on Monday, with a motion toward the northeast
expected on Tuesday as the hurricane gradually rounds the western
periphery of the deep-layer ridge. By late Tuesday, Willa is
forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough
that will be approaching Baja California, resulting in landfall
along the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday. The latest 00Z
model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track,
and only minor forward speed adjustments were required. A 96-h
position has been provided only for continuity purposes, and Willa
will likely have dissipated over the Mexican mountains by then.

Willa's small inner-core wind field along with ideal environmental
conditions consisting of low shear, high mid-level moisture, and
warm SSTs of 28 deg C should allow the hurricane to continue to
rapidly intensify for the next 24-36 hours
, followed by a leveling
off in the intensity by early Tuesday due to expected cold upwelling
beneath the slow-moving hurricane. In 60-72 hours, increasing
southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is
expected to induce steady weakening until landfall occurs. Rapid
dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will
occur after landfall. The official intensity forecast is a tad
above the consensus models HCCA and FSSE, and is little below the
robust Navy COAMPS-TC model forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W 120 KT 140 MPH CAT4 :!:
72H 24/0600Z 22.3N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR WNCTRL MEXICO
96H 25/0600Z 26.9N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND NCNTRL MEXICO
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 210841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 22 lis 2018, 06:16

Najnovije izvješće NHC-a govori u snažnoj intezifikaciji sustava u zadnjih 24 sata! Sustav je u 24 sata iz tropske depresije prešao u snažni uragan 4. kategorije, brojna upozorenja izdana su uzduž obale Meksika, bez obzira što neki pred landfall očekuju malo slabljenje sustava, Willa će ostati vrlo opasan uragan!!

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 220232
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify this evening. Satellite
images show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of
cold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern
quadrant. The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the
latest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin. Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since
genesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4
hurricane in less than 48 hours.


Willa is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion
estimated to be 340/6 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn
northward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward
motion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches
the system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. On the
forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on
Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central
Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.


The hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal
environmental conditions
and since these conditions will persist a
little longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short
term. However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to
eyewall replacement cycles. The models then show a gradual increase
in shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and
these factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless,
Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple
life-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is
forecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the
mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high
end of the model guidance through dissipation.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or
Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding
along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is
in effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to
completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W 135 KT 155 MPH Gornja CAT 4 (CAT5 Vjetrovi brži od 156 mph) :!:
24H 23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la _Mario92_ » 22 lis 2018, 17:52

Willa je postala nevjerojatan uragan 5. kategorije. Vjetar 160 MPH :shock:

Citat:
...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


slika

Citat:
illa is an extremely impressive hurricane in infrared and visible
satellite imagery this morning. The small, but very distinct, eye
is embedded within a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud
tops of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius. A very recent SSMIS microwave
overpass is the first to indicate that an outer eyewall has formed,
suggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle has started. The
latest objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS are T7.0/140 kt, and
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 140 kt
and 127 kt, respectively. Based on these data the initial intensity
has been increased to 140 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better
assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
Periodically, nature will in a kind of a psychotic fit, go completely randomly mad.

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la Ned » 22 lis 2018, 20:50

opa, Willa rastura
i dalje CAT 5

Citat:
1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA
MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


šteta da se HH morao vratiti u bazu

Citat:
The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft that was en route to Willa experienced a safety issue
before entering the storm and had to return to base.
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la Ned » 22 lis 2018, 22:49

Willa opet CAT 4, doduše na samoj granici, 250 km/h,

Citat:
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


Hurricane hunter se vratio neobavljena posla jer ga je pogodila munja na putu prema središtu uragana

Citat:
The
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to
Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain
bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding
some of the onboard equipment.
The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la radoznali » 23 lis 2018, 03:15

Još je malo oslabio,izvješće od 6PM kaže da pušu vjetrovi od 150 mph,a tlak je 933hPa. Sustav se giba konstantnom brzinom od 8mph.

Ostalo … prije slijetanja u Mexico oslabiti će do kategorije 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.7N 107.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED


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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la Ned » 23 lis 2018, 20:39

Willa sve bliže obali Meksika

Citat:
1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA PASSING NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
COASTS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


Citat:
Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
over the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along
the coast of west- central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds will also
extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico
as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0000Z 26.7N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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The snow comes down so fast and thick, you can actually watch it pile up, and you can even hear it

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 24 lis 2018, 14:49

Willa je postala tropska depresija u unutrašnjosti Meksika! Raspad se očekuje za 24h!


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240833
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is
located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state
of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations
to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation
shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking
high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast
position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects
where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the
cyclone will likely have dissipated by then.

Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds
atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up
to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this
advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will
still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms
occurring to the east and south of the center.

Key Messages:

1. Storm surge will subside this morning along the coasts of
southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Re: Istočni Pacifik: Uragan Willa (20.10.-)

PostPostao/la FranGaca1 » 24 lis 2018, 18:14

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 241433
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Willa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa's
surface circulation has dissipated over northeastern Mexico, so
this is the final advisory.

It should be noted that a non-tropical cyclone that is forecast to
move from the Gulf of Mexico to the northeastern United States over
the next few days is a separate system, and not directly associated
with Willa's remnants.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 25.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF WILLA
12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Pasch


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